Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Payton Industries Ltd (PAYT.TA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.23 - $29.87$22.65
Multi-Stage$16.76 - $18.31$17.52
Blended Fair Value$20.09
Current Price$17.11
Upside17.40%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.30%0.00%0.780.650.640.580.000.600.370.370.370.00
YoY Growth--21.02%0.64%11.43%0.00%-100.00%61.67%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.65%3.97%4.95%3.74%0.00%5.77%2.26%3.79%5.94%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)10.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)7.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.141.340.80
Cash Retained (M)7.237.237.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.14-1.34-0.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)5.095.896.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8.258.258.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.620.710.78
LTM Dividend per Share0.420.420.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.620.710.78
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.041.131.20
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate3.75%4.75%5.75%
Fair Value$17.23$22.65$29.87
Upside / Downside0.71%32.41%74.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)10.7011.2111.7412.3012.8913.5013.90
Payout Ratio32.45%43.96%55.47%66.98%78.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3.474.936.518.2410.1112.1512.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate3.75%4.75%5.75%
Year 1 PV (M)4.444.484.52
Year 2 PV (M)5.285.385.49
Year 3 PV (M)6.016.196.37
Year 4 PV (M)6.656.917.18
Year 5 PV (M)7.197.547.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)108.73114.07119.62
Equity Value (M)138.30144.58151.09
Shares Outstanding (M)8.258.258.25
Fair Value$16.76$17.52$18.31
Upside / Downside-2.05%2.40%7.01%

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