Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ørsted A/S (ORSTED.CO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Renewable UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$115.78 - $168.93$141.46
Multi-Stage$288.53 - $318.70$303.31
Blended Fair Value$222.39
Current Price$151.18
Upside47.10%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-30.03%-0.93%1.6313.4812.4811.4710.489.738.985.991.521.95
YoY Growth---87.89%8.02%8.74%9.52%7.67%8.33%49.98%293.91%-22.14%9.02%
Dividend Yield--0.97%6.44%3.85%2.43%1.84%2.63%3.21%2.74%1.02%1.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,642.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)677.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,965.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,328.40830.25498.15
Cash Retained (M)5,965.005,965.005,965.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,328.40-830.25-498.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,636.605,134.755,466.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)420.93420.93420.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share11.0212.2012.99
LTM Dividend per Share1.611.611.61
(+) Excess Retained per Share11.0212.2012.99
(=) Adjusted Dividend12.6213.8114.60
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate-3.98%-2.98%-1.98%
Fair Value$115.78$141.46$168.93
Upside / Downside-23.42%-6.43%11.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,642.006,444.336,252.546,066.465,885.925,710.755,882.07
Payout Ratio10.19%26.15%42.12%58.08%74.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)677.001,685.462,633.303,523.224,357.855,139.685,440.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate-3.98%-2.98%-1.98%
Year 1 PV (M)1,566.381,582.691,599.00
Year 2 PV (M)2,274.342,321.962,370.07
Year 3 PV (M)2,827.962,917.233,008.37
Year 4 PV (M)3,250.743,388.293,530.15
Year 5 PV (M)3,563.073,752.503,949.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)107,970.16113,710.53119,692.49
Equity Value (M)121,452.65127,673.20134,149.99
Shares Outstanding (M)420.93420.93420.93
Fair Value$288.53$303.31$318.70
Upside / Downside90.85%100.63%110.81%

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