Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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NextVison Stabilized Systems, Ltd. (NXSN.TA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Security & Protection ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.20 - $8.77$7.47
Multi-Stage$9.58 - $10.50$10.03
Blended Fair Value$8.75
Current Price$37.17
Upside-76.46%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.160.070.030.020.010.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--147.33%95.24%108.55%194.41%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.72%0.57%1.05%0.54%0.30%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)79.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)33.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)45.99
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15.959.975.98
Cash Retained (M)45.9945.9945.99
(-) Cash Required (M)-15.95-9.97-5.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)30.0436.0240.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)84.1184.1184.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.360.430.48
LTM Dividend per Share0.400.400.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.360.430.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.760.830.88
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$6.20$7.47$8.77
Upside / Downside-83.33%-79.91%-76.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)79.7778.9778.1877.4076.6375.8678.14
Payout Ratio42.35%51.88%61.41%70.94%80.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)33.7840.9748.0154.9161.6668.2772.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)36.8737.2437.62
Year 2 PV (M)38.8839.6840.48
Year 3 PV (M)40.0141.2542.51
Year 4 PV (M)40.4442.1243.84
Year 5 PV (M)40.2942.3944.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)609.39641.12674.16
Equity Value (M)805.89843.80883.20
Shares Outstanding (M)84.1184.1184.11
Fair Value$9.58$10.03$10.50
Upside / Downside-74.22%-73.01%-71.75%

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