Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Northern Star Resources Limited (NST.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: GoldSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$137.88 - $334.53$313.50
Multi-Stage$49.12 - $53.75$51.39
Blended Fair Value$182.45
Current Price$18.55
Upside883.55%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS62.94%35.63%0.480.280.220.190.260.040.060.050.050.03
YoY Growth--67.49%30.71%16.95%-29.69%537.97%-30.81%11.06%5.47%66.74%35.75%
Dividend Yield--2.56%2.20%1.80%2.71%2.70%0.31%0.53%0.74%1.07%0.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,978.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)892.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,085.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)395.64247.28148.37
Cash Retained (M)1,085.601,085.601,085.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-395.64-247.28-148.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)689.96838.33937.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,176.031,176.031,176.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.590.710.80
LTM Dividend per Share0.760.760.76
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.590.710.80
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.351.471.56
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$137.88$313.50$334.53
Upside / Downside643.27%1,590.03%1,703.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,978.202,106.782,243.722,389.572,544.892,710.312,791.61
Payout Ratio45.12%54.10%63.07%72.05%81.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)892.601,139.721,415.191,721.652,061.982,439.272,582.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,059.811,069.861,079.90
Year 2 PV (M)1,223.711,247.021,270.54
Year 3 PV (M)1,384.341,424.081,464.57
Year 4 PV (M)1,541.751,601.041,662.02
Year 5 PV (M)1,695.981,777.901,862.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)50,865.3153,322.1355,872.97
Equity Value (M)57,770.9060,442.0263,212.96
Shares Outstanding (M)1,176.031,176.031,176.03
Fair Value$49.12$51.39$53.75
Upside / Downside164.82%177.06%189.76%

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