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Definitive Analysis

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Nordrest Holding AB (publ) (NREST.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$97.35 - $148.94$121.46
Multi-Stage$210.23 - $231.33$220.57
Blended Fair Value$171.02
Current Price$205.00
Upside-16.58%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021
DPS0.00%0.00%7.061.551.550.210.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--356.45%0.00%624.64%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.22%1.34%1.34%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)140.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)63.63
(=) Cash Retained (M)76.68
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)28.0617.5410.52
Cash Retained (M)76.6876.6876.68
(-) Cash Required (M)-28.06-17.54-10.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)48.6259.1466.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)12.9312.9312.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.764.575.12
LTM Dividend per Share4.924.924.92
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.764.575.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.689.5010.04
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$97.35$121.46$148.94
Upside / Downside-52.51%-40.75%-27.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)140.31138.91137.52136.14134.78133.44137.44
Payout Ratio45.35%54.28%63.21%72.14%81.07%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)63.6375.4086.9398.21109.27120.09127.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)69.9270.6471.35
Year 2 PV (M)74.7676.2977.84
Year 3 PV (M)78.3480.7683.23
Year 4 PV (M)80.8384.1887.63
Year 5 PV (M)82.3886.6791.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,331.742,453.162,579.59
Equity Value (M)2,717.972,851.702,990.78
Shares Outstanding (M)12.9312.9312.93
Fair Value$210.23$220.57$231.33
Upside / Downside2.55%7.60%12.84%

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