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Definitive Analysis

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Nelly Group AB (publ) (NELLY.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$43.12 - $65.67$53.69
Multi-Stage$88.82 - $97.86$93.25
Blended Fair Value$73.47
Current Price$78.50
Upside-6.40%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.830.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.47%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)146.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)24.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)121.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)29.3018.3110.99
Cash Retained (M)121.60121.60121.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-29.30-18.31-10.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)92.30103.29110.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)30.0130.0130.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.083.443.69
LTM Dividend per Share0.830.830.83
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.083.443.69
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.914.274.52
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$43.12$53.69$65.67
Upside / Downside-45.07%-31.60%-16.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)146.50145.04143.58142.15140.73139.32143.50
Payout Ratio17.00%31.60%46.20%60.80%75.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)24.9045.8366.3386.42106.11125.39132.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)42.4542.8843.31
Year 2 PV (M)56.9058.0759.25
Year 3 PV (M)68.6770.7972.96
Year 4 PV (M)78.0981.3284.66
Year 5 PV (M)85.4789.9294.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,333.852,455.382,581.92
Equity Value (M)2,665.432,798.372,936.65
Shares Outstanding (M)30.0130.0130.01
Fair Value$88.82$93.25$97.86
Upside / Downside13.15%18.80%24.67%

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