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Definitive Analysis

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Llorente & Cuenca, S.A. (LLYC.MC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Consulting ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$97.91 - $281.67$263.96
Multi-Stage$38.52 - $42.17$40.31
Blended Fair Value$152.14
Current Price$8.35
Upside1,722.02%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS14.41%0.00%0.390.310.000.000.000.200.200.160.190.00
YoY Growth--25.91%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%2.27%22.56%-13.34%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%3.75%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)6.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.671.040.63
Cash Retained (M)6.506.506.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.67-1.04-0.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)4.835.465.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5.905.905.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.820.931.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.820.931.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.131.241.31
WACC / Discount Rate6.72%6.72%6.72%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$97.91$263.96$281.67
Upside / Downside1,072.63%3,061.26%3,273.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8.358.899.4710.0910.7411.4411.78
Payout Ratio22.13%35.70%49.28%62.85%76.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.853.184.676.348.2110.3010.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.72%6.72%6.72%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2.952.983.00
Year 2 PV (M)4.024.104.18
Year 3 PV (M)5.075.225.36
Year 4 PV (M)6.106.336.57
Year 5 PV (M)7.107.447.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)201.87211.63221.75
Equity Value (M)227.10237.68248.66
Shares Outstanding (M)5.905.905.90
Fair Value$38.52$40.31$42.17
Upside / Downside361.29%382.77%405.06%

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