Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Lalique Group S.A. (LLQ.SW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Luxury GoodsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$60.13 - $325.81$117.50
Multi-Stage$46.23 - $50.62$48.38
Blended Fair Value$82.94
Current Price$38.11
Upside117.64%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS10.96%0.00%0.500.380.000.000.360.290.080.040.000.00
YoY Growth--30.63%0.00%0.00%-100.00%22.73%250.32%93.73%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.30%1.17%0.00%0.00%1.01%0.67%0.18%0.09%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)12.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)5.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.441.520.91
Cash Retained (M)5.605.605.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.44-1.52-0.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)3.164.074.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7.367.367.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.430.550.64
LTM Dividend per Share0.900.900.90
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.430.550.64
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.331.451.53
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate4.21%5.21%6.21%
Fair Value$60.13$117.50$325.81
Upside / Downside57.77%208.33%754.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)12.2012.8313.5014.2114.9515.7316.20
Payout Ratio54.12%61.30%68.47%75.65%82.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6.607.879.2510.7512.3814.1514.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate4.21%5.21%6.21%
Year 1 PV (M)7.327.397.46
Year 2 PV (M)8.008.158.31
Year 3 PV (M)8.648.899.15
Year 4 PV (M)9.269.629.99
Year 5 PV (M)9.8410.3310.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)297.03311.56326.65
Equity Value (M)340.09355.94372.38
Shares Outstanding (M)7.367.367.36
Fair Value$46.23$48.38$50.62
Upside / Downside21.30%26.95%32.82%

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