Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Lagercrantz Group AB (publ) (LAGR-B.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Information Technology ServicesSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$238.06 - $1,056.23$560.57
Multi-Stage$123.35 - $134.87$129.01
Blended Fair Value$344.79
Current Price$202.40
Upside70.35%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS16.97%15.85%1.901.591.390.990.680.870.660.660.580.49
YoY Growth--19.15%14.24%41.18%45.71%-21.79%30.66%0.74%14.29%16.67%13.33%
Dividend Yield--0.83%0.92%1.00%1.19%0.73%1.80%1.46%2.02%1.87%1.86%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,097.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)453.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)644.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)219.40137.1382.28
Cash Retained (M)644.00644.00644.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-219.40-137.13-82.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)424.60506.88561.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)206.55206.55206.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.062.452.72
LTM Dividend per Share2.192.192.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.062.452.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.254.654.91
WACC / Discount Rate7.38%7.38%7.38%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$238.06$560.57$1,056.23
Upside / Downside17.62%176.96%421.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,097.001,168.311,244.241,325.121,411.251,502.991,548.07
Payout Ratio41.29%51.04%60.78%70.52%80.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)453.00596.25756.21934.451,132.661,352.691,431.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.38%7.38%7.38%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)550.04555.26560.47
Year 2 PV (M)643.54655.80668.18
Year 3 PV (M)733.60754.66776.11
Year 4 PV (M)820.29851.84884.29
Year 5 PV (M)903.72947.37992.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)21,827.9122,882.2123,976.85
Equity Value (M)25,479.1126,647.1427,858.60
Shares Outstanding (M)206.55206.55206.55
Fair Value$123.35$129.01$134.87
Upside / Downside-39.05%-36.26%-33.36%

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