Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

Sector

Israel Shipyards Industries Ltd (ISHI.TA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.29 - $16.33$13.74
Multi-Stage$19.28 - $21.14$20.19
Blended Fair Value$16.96
Current Price$126.10
Upside-86.55%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS-2.46%0.00%1.191.391.191.000.681.351.703.840.000.00
YoY Growth---14.29%16.67%20.00%46.80%-49.87%-20.34%-55.75%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.01%1.99%1.58%0.94%1.16%1.95%2.45%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)39.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)20.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)19.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.834.892.94
Cash Retained (M)19.1419.1419.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.83-4.89-2.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)11.3114.2516.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)25.1125.1125.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.450.570.65
LTM Dividend per Share0.800.800.80
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.450.570.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.251.361.44
WACC / Discount Rate8.83%8.83%8.83%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$11.29$13.74$16.33
Upside / Downside-91.05%-89.11%-87.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)39.1438.7538.3637.9837.6037.2238.34
Payout Ratio51.10%58.88%66.66%74.44%82.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)20.0022.8125.5728.2730.9133.5035.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.83%8.83%8.83%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)20.7520.9621.18
Year 2 PV (M)21.1621.5922.03
Year 3 PV (M)21.2821.9322.60
Year 4 PV (M)21.1622.0422.94
Year 5 PV (M)20.8621.9523.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)378.85398.58419.12
Equity Value (M)484.05507.05530.95
Shares Outstanding (M)25.1125.1125.11
Fair Value$19.28$20.19$21.14
Upside / Downside-84.71%-83.99%-83.23%

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