Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

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PT Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk (INKP.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Paper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.56 - $0.89$0.71
Multi-Stage$0.86 - $0.95$0.90
Blended Fair Value$0.81
Current Price$0.36
Upside126.55%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-15.41%4.63%0.000.000.000.000.000.010.010.000.000.00
YoY Growth---14.18%7.16%-1.04%-6.95%-48.87%2.39%226.82%18.18%2.29%-10.25%
Dividend Yield--1.04%0.60%0.68%0.62%0.50%2.91%1.21%0.27%1.83%2.44%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)309.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)16.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)292.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)61.8538.6623.19
Cash Retained (M)292.41292.41292.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-61.85-38.66-23.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)230.56253.75269.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,470.985,470.985,470.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.050.050.05
WACC / Discount Rate7.95%7.95%7.95%
Growth Rate-0.05%0.95%1.95%
Fair Value$0.56$0.71$0.89
Upside / Downside58.37%99.92%148.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)309.26312.19315.15318.14321.15324.20333.92
Payout Ratio5.45%22.36%39.27%56.18%73.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)16.8569.80123.76178.73234.73291.78308.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.95%7.95%7.95%
Growth Rate-0.05%0.95%1.95%
Year 1 PV (M)64.0264.6665.30
Year 2 PV (M)104.10106.19108.31
Year 3 PV (M)137.88142.06146.33
Year 4 PV (M)166.08172.83179.78
Year 5 PV (M)189.34199.01209.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,046.584,253.114,467.98
Equity Value (M)4,708.014,937.865,176.76
Shares Outstanding (M)5,470.985,470.985,470.98
Fair Value$0.86$0.90$0.95
Upside / Downside141.39%153.17%165.42%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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