DDM Analysis: ILU.AX

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$8.12 - $11.92	$9.95
Multi-Stage	$17.00 - $18.74	$17.85
Blended Fair Value	$13.90
Current Price	$3.80
Upside	265.80%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-19.58%	-2.16%	0.08	0.22	0.34	0.13	0.08	0.23	0.25	0.06	0.21	0.18
YoY Growth	-	-	-65.36%	-33.92%	164.98%	69.94%	-67.37%	-7.76%	331.47%	-72.75%	15.85%	90.19%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.54%	3.40%	3.56%	1.27%	1.16%	4.96%	6.57%	1.14%	5.85%	5.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	462.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	63.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)	399.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	92.42	57.76	34.66
Cash Retained (M)	399.00	399.00	399.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-92.42	-57.76	-34.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)	306.58	341.24	364.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	432.76	432.76	432.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.71	0.79	0.84
LTM Dividend per Share	0.15	0.15	0.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.71	0.79	0.84
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.85	0.93	0.99
WACC / Discount Rate	7.18%	7.18%	7.18%
Growth Rate	-3.02%	-2.02%	-1.02%
Fair Value	$8.12	$9.95	$11.92
Upside / Downside	113.70%	161.80%	213.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	462.10	452.78	443.64	434.69	425.92	417.33	429.85
Payout Ratio	13.66%	28.92%	44.19%	59.46%	74.73%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	63.10	130.96	196.06	258.48	318.30	375.60	397.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.18%	7.18%	7.18%
Growth Rate	-3.02%	-2.02%	-1.02%
Year 1 PV (M)	120.94	122.18	123.43
Year 2 PV (M)	167.19	170.66	174.16
Year 3 PV (M)	203.54	209.91	216.40
Year 4 PV (M)	231.46	241.16	251.15
Year 5 PV (M)	252.22	265.50	279.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)	6,380.55	6,716.35	7,066.15
Equity Value (M)	7,355.90	7,725.75	8,110.62
Shares Outstanding (M)	432.76	432.76	432.76
Fair Value	$17.00	$17.85	$18.74
Upside / Downside	347.31%	369.80%	393.20%

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Iluka Resources Limited (ILU.AX)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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