Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Harboes Bryggeri A/S (HARB-B.CO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$159.55 - $299.85$216.58
Multi-Stage$267.14 - $293.75$280.19
Blended Fair Value$248.39
Current Price$144.34
Upside72.08%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%-1.04%2.000.000.000.000.000.001.082.162.162.16
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-49.99%0.00%0.00%-2.58%
Dividend Yield--1.39%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.39%2.37%1.82%1.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)44.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)36.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.965.603.36
Cash Retained (M)36.3536.3536.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.96-5.60-3.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)27.3930.7532.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4.224.224.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share6.497.287.82
LTM Dividend per Share2.002.002.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share6.497.287.82
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.499.289.82
WACC / Discount Rate6.25%6.25%6.25%
Growth Rate0.89%1.89%2.89%
Fair Value$159.55$216.58$299.85
Upside / Downside10.53%50.05%107.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)44.8045.6446.5047.3848.2749.1850.66
Payout Ratio18.85%33.08%47.31%61.54%75.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8.4515.1022.0029.1636.5844.2646.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.25%6.25%6.25%
Growth Rate0.89%1.89%2.89%
Year 1 PV (M)14.0714.2114.35
Year 2 PV (M)19.1119.4919.87
Year 3 PV (M)23.6024.3125.03
Year 4 PV (M)27.5928.7029.84
Year 5 PV (M)31.1132.6834.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,012.281,063.461,116.68
Equity Value (M)1,127.751,182.841,240.09
Shares Outstanding (M)4.224.224.22
Fair Value$267.14$280.19$293.75
Upside / Downside85.08%94.12%103.51%

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