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Definitive Analysis

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Türkiye Halk Bankasi A.S. (HALKB.IS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$320.45 - $752.49$705.19
Multi-Stage$108.24 - $118.62$113.33
Blended Fair Value$409.26
Current Price$26.34
Upside1,453.77%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.030.040.030.03
YoY Growth---100.00%87.77%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-26.42%7.54%6.73%-19.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.43%0.40%0.32%0.30%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)27,185.17
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)27,182.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5,437.033,398.152,038.89
Cash Retained (M)27,182.2327,182.2327,182.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-5,437.03-3,398.15-2,038.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)21,745.2023,784.0825,143.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,184.787,184.787,184.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.033.313.50
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.033.313.50
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.033.313.50
WACC / Discount Rate6.50%6.50%6.50%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$320.45$705.19$752.49
Upside / Downside1,116.59%2,577.26%2,756.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)27,185.1728,952.2030,834.1032,838.3134,972.8137,246.0438,363.42
Payout Ratio0.01%18.01%36.01%54.00%72.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.945,213.9011,102.2717,734.1125,181.1833,521.4335,486.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.50%6.50%6.50%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)4,849.874,895.844,941.81
Year 2 PV (M)9,606.099,789.069,973.75
Year 3 PV (M)14,272.8714,682.5915,100.08
Year 4 PV (M)18,851.4719,576.4420,322.13
Year 5 PV (M)23,343.1324,470.6125,641.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)706,733.16740,868.64776,310.56
Equity Value (M)777,656.59814,283.18852,289.58
Shares Outstanding (M)7,184.787,184.787,184.78
Fair Value$108.24$113.33$118.62
Upside / Downside310.92%330.28%350.36%

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