Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Hong Leong Asia Ltd. (H22.SI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.07 - $1.61$1.32
Multi-Stage$2.11 - $2.32$2.22
Blended Fair Value$1.77
Current Price$1.60
Upside10.56%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%4.14%0.030.020.020.010.010.000.000.000.000.01
YoY Growth--50.00%0.01%100.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-66.67%-25.00%
Dividend Yield--2.46%3.25%2.92%1.21%1.31%0.00%0.00%0.53%0.40%2.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)94.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)29.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)64.32
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.8511.787.07
Cash Retained (M)64.3264.3264.32
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.85-11.78-7.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)45.4752.5457.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)748.15748.15748.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.12
WACC / Discount Rate7.25%7.25%7.25%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.07$1.32$1.61
Upside / Downside-33.28%-17.34%0.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)94.2493.3092.3791.4490.5389.6392.31
Payout Ratio31.75%43.40%55.05%66.70%78.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)29.9240.4950.8560.9970.9380.6685.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.25%7.25%7.25%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)37.3837.7638.14
Year 2 PV (M)43.3244.2145.10
Year 3 PV (M)47.9649.4450.95
Year 4 PV (M)51.4853.6155.81
Year 5 PV (M)54.0356.8459.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,345.571,415.641,488.59
Equity Value (M)1,579.731,657.491,738.37
Shares Outstanding (M)748.15748.15748.15
Fair Value$2.11$2.22$2.32
Upside / Downside31.97%38.47%45.22%

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