Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Gold Road Resources Limited (GOR.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: GoldSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.91 - $6.84$5.16
Multi-Stage$3.05 - $3.33$3.19
Blended Fair Value$4.18
Current Price$3.27
Upside27.74%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.010.010.010.020.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---13.45%22.30%-25.28%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.60%0.73%0.69%1.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)309.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)37.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)272.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)61.9338.7123.22
Cash Retained (M)272.14272.14272.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-61.93-38.71-23.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)210.20233.43248.91
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,087.011,087.011,087.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.210.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.210.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.250.26
WACC / Discount Rate11.64%11.64%11.64%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$3.91$5.16$6.84
Upside / Downside19.71%57.87%109.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)309.65329.78351.22374.05398.36424.25436.98
Payout Ratio12.12%27.69%43.27%58.85%74.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)37.5291.33151.97220.11296.47381.83404.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate11.64%11.64%11.64%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)81.0381.8082.57
Year 2 PV (M)119.65121.93124.23
Year 3 PV (M)153.77158.18162.68
Year 4 PV (M)183.77190.84198.11
Year 5 PV (M)210.01220.15230.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,572.462,696.722,825.72
Equity Value (M)3,320.703,469.623,623.99
Shares Outstanding (M)1,087.011,087.011,087.01
Fair Value$3.05$3.19$3.33
Upside / Downside-6.58%-2.39%1.95%

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