Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A. (GOB.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$179.35 - $385.88$255.93
Multi-Stage$228.21 - $250.39$239.09
Blended Fair Value$247.51
Current Price$99.64
Upside148.41%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.86%4.31%2.082.011.661.390.001.421.411.381.351.38
YoY Growth--3.16%21.61%19.51%0.00%-100.00%1.27%2.02%1.91%-2.16%1.46%
Dividend Yield--2.42%3.04%3.63%2.24%0.00%3.90%4.82%3.02%3.05%3.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,877.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,593.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,284.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)975.50609.69365.81
Cash Retained (M)3,284.503,284.503,284.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-975.50-609.69-365.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,309.002,674.812,918.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)503.18503.18503.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.595.325.80
LTM Dividend per Share3.173.173.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.595.325.80
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.758.488.97
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate2.31%3.31%4.31%
Fair Value$179.35$255.93$385.88
Upside / Downside80.00%156.86%287.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,877.505,039.145,206.145,378.675,556.925,741.075,913.30
Payout Ratio32.66%44.13%55.60%67.06%78.53%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,593.002,223.682,894.413,607.154,363.965,166.975,469.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate2.31%3.31%4.31%
Year 1 PV (M)2,063.142,083.312,103.47
Year 2 PV (M)2,491.582,540.522,589.94
Year 3 PV (M)2,880.962,966.263,053.23
Year 4 PV (M)3,233.783,362.073,494.15
Year 5 PV (M)3,552.413,729.443,913.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)100,609.74105,623.51110,835.20
Equity Value (M)114,831.62120,305.12125,989.45
Shares Outstanding (M)503.18503.18503.18
Fair Value$228.21$239.09$250.39
Upside / Downside129.04%139.95%151.29%

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