Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Goodman Group (GMG.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$34.30 - $159.56$76.76
Multi-Stage$23.07 - $25.26$24.15
Blended Fair Value$50.45
Current Price$34.24
Upside47.35%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.91%6.51%0.300.290.290.290.280.280.270.250.240.17
YoY Growth--0.74%0.94%0.88%1.05%0.93%3.33%8.25%5.92%39.81%8.38%
Dividend Yield--0.86%0.84%1.45%1.61%1.35%1.90%1.79%2.62%3.03%2.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,567.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)852.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)715.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)313.50195.94117.56
Cash Retained (M)715.20715.20715.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-313.50-195.94-117.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)401.70519.26597.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,935.701,935.701,935.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.270.31
LTM Dividend per Share0.440.440.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.270.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.650.710.75
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate4.51%5.51%6.51%
Fair Value$34.30$76.76$159.56
Upside / Downside0.17%124.17%366.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,567.501,653.831,744.911,841.001,942.392,049.362,110.84
Payout Ratio54.37%61.50%68.62%75.75%82.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)852.301,017.081,197.421,394.551,609.751,844.421,952.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate4.51%5.51%6.51%
Year 1 PV (M)946.12955.17964.23
Year 2 PV (M)1,036.171,056.091,076.21
Year 3 PV (M)1,122.551,155.091,188.24
Year 4 PV (M)1,205.381,252.181,300.33
Year 5 PV (M)1,284.751,347.401,412.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)39,068.5640,973.8542,952.77
Equity Value (M)44,663.5246,739.7848,894.25
Shares Outstanding (M)1,935.701,935.701,935.70
Fair Value$23.07$24.15$25.26
Upside / Downside-32.61%-29.48%-26.23%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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