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Definitive Analysis

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Gresham House plc (GHE.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.24 - $17.68$11.75
Multi-Stage$6.38 - $6.94$6.65
Blended Fair Value$9.20
Current Price$6.80
Upside35.33%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2022202120202019201820172016201520142013
DPS0.00%53.08%0.110.050.040.020.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--102.82%39.23%69.94%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%148.15%
Dividend Yield--1.40%0.58%0.47%0.36%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)15.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10.27
(=) Cash Retained (M)5.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.131.961.17
Cash Retained (M)5.385.385.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.13-1.96-1.17
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.253.434.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)36.1036.1036.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.090.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.280.280.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.090.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.380.40
WACC / Discount Rate9.94%9.94%9.94%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$8.24$11.75$17.68
Upside / Downside21.23%72.79%160.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)15.6516.6717.7518.9020.1321.4422.08
Payout Ratio65.60%70.48%75.36%80.24%85.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10.2711.7513.3815.1717.1419.3020.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.94%9.94%9.94%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)10.5810.6910.79
Year 2 PV (M)10.8611.0711.28
Year 3 PV (M)11.1011.4211.74
Year 4 PV (M)11.3011.7312.18
Year 5 PV (M)11.4612.0212.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)174.89183.34192.11
Equity Value (M)230.19240.26250.68
Shares Outstanding (M)36.1036.1036.10
Fair Value$6.38$6.65$6.94
Upside / Downside-6.23%-2.13%2.11%

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