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Definitive Analysis

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GFPT Public Company Limited (GFPT-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.96 - $32.10$25.44
Multi-Stage$42.11 - $46.41$44.22
Blended Fair Value$34.83
Current Price$9.95
Upside250.05%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-9.73%-8.13%0.150.200.100.200.200.250.300.300.250.40
YoY Growth---25.07%99.98%-50.00%0.00%-20.00%-16.66%0.01%20.01%-37.52%14.29%
Dividend Yield--1.75%1.61%0.88%1.55%1.65%2.87%2.10%2.29%1.36%3.30%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,378.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)250.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,128.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)475.79297.37178.42
Cash Retained (M)2,128.252,128.252,128.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-475.79-297.37-178.42
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,652.461,830.881,949.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,254.961,254.961,254.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.321.461.55
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.321.461.55
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.521.661.75
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-1.20%-0.20%0.80%
Fair Value$19.96$25.44$32.10
Upside / Downside100.62%155.71%222.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,378.972,374.292,369.632,364.972,360.322,355.682,426.35
Payout Ratio10.54%26.43%42.32%58.22%74.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)250.72627.551,002.911,376.781,749.182,120.112,244.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-1.20%-0.20%0.80%
Year 1 PV (M)584.39590.31596.22
Year 2 PV (M)869.69887.39905.26
Year 3 PV (M)1,111.791,145.891,180.68
Year 4 PV (M)1,315.371,369.431,425.15
Year 5 PV (M)1,484.651,561.321,641.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)47,484.6849,936.8052,489.19
Equity Value (M)52,850.5755,491.1458,237.63
Shares Outstanding (M)1,254.961,254.961,254.96
Fair Value$42.11$44.22$46.41
Upside / Downside323.25%344.40%366.39%

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