Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Futebol Clube do Porto - Futebol, S.A.D. (FCP.LS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: EntertainmentSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.84 - $37.41$23.35
Multi-Stage$64.94 - $71.78$68.29
Blended Fair Value$45.82
Current Price$1.05
Upside4,263.87%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.020.020.000.000.000.020.000.000.00
YoY Growth---100.00%-2.39%0.00%-100.00%269.50%-97.30%1,015.91%86.31%-35.03%39.85%
Dividend Yield--0.00%1.46%1.56%0.00%0.30%0.07%3.08%0.28%0.17%0.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)18.18
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)17.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.642.271.36
Cash Retained (M)17.8017.8017.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.64-2.27-1.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)14.1715.5316.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)22.5022.5022.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.630.690.73
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.630.690.73
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.650.710.75
WACC / Discount Rate2.00%2.00%2.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$15.84$23.35$37.41
Upside / Downside1,408.98%2,123.50%3,462.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)18.1818.0017.8217.6417.4617.2917.81
Payout Ratio2.05%19.64%37.23%54.82%72.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.373.536.639.6712.6415.5616.47

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.00%2.00%2.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)3.433.463.50
Year 2 PV (M)6.256.386.50
Year 3 PV (M)8.849.119.39
Year 4 PV (M)11.2211.6812.16
Year 5 PV (M)13.4014.0914.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,418.051,491.891,568.78
Equity Value (M)1,461.181,536.621,615.15
Shares Outstanding (M)22.5022.5022.50
Fair Value$64.94$68.29$71.78
Upside / Downside6,084.91%6,404.23%6,736.66%

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