Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Falabella S.A. (FALABELLA.SN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8,658.67 - $26,231.89$13,768.09
Multi-Stage$9,816.54 - $10,774.23$10,286.34
Blended Fair Value$12,027.21
Current Price$4,950.00
Upside142.97%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-22.44%-10.41%23.773.60102.0237.0943.0684.7261.4485.7285.9078.68
YoY Growth--560.30%-96.47%175.04%-13.85%-49.17%37.89%-28.33%-0.21%9.18%10.26%
Dividend Yield--0.60%0.14%5.58%1.47%1.32%4.49%1.22%1.48%1.55%1.68%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)863,843.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)221,686.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)642,157.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)172,768.78107,980.4964,788.29
Cash Retained (M)642,157.70642,157.70642,157.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-172,768.78-107,980.49-64,788.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)469,388.92534,177.22577,369.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,508.852,508.852,508.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share187.09212.92230.13
LTM Dividend per Share88.3688.3688.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share187.09212.92230.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend275.46301.28318.50
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate2.91%3.91%4.91%
Fair Value$8,658.67$13,768.09$26,231.89
Upside / Downside74.92%178.14%429.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)863,843.89897,587.42932,649.03969,080.231,006,934.501,046,267.441,077,655.46
Payout Ratio25.66%38.53%51.40%64.27%77.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)221,686.19345,842.30479,359.75622,780.42776,674.28941,640.70996,831.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate2.91%3.91%4.91%
Year 1 PV (M)322,578.76325,713.44328,848.13
Year 2 PV (M)417,039.18425,183.79433,407.17
Year 3 PV (M)505,368.19520,244.70535,410.32
Year 4 PV (M)587,854.06611,039.39634,903.88
Year 5 PV (M)664,773.15697,706.99731,933.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)22,130,567.2423,226,948.0924,366,357.74
Equity Value (M)24,628,180.5825,806,836.4027,030,860.60
Shares Outstanding (M)2,508.852,508.852,508.85
Fair Value$9,816.54$10,286.34$10,774.23
Upside / Downside98.31%107.80%117.66%

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