Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Exsitec Holding AB (publ) (EXS.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Information Technology ServicesSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$52.44 - $81.88$66.01
Multi-Stage$121.67 - $134.19$127.80
Blended Fair Value$96.90
Current Price$139.50
Upside-30.53%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS0.00%0.00%1.751.681.431.220.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--3.98%17.87%16.77%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.55%0.93%1.04%0.64%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)73.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7.33
(=) Cash Retained (M)66.18
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.709.195.51
Cash Retained (M)66.1866.1866.18
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.70-9.19-5.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)51.4756.9960.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)13.4313.4313.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.834.244.52
LTM Dividend per Share0.550.550.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.834.244.52
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.384.795.06
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$52.44$66.01$81.88
Upside / Downside-62.41%-52.68%-41.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)73.5172.7772.0471.3270.6169.9072.00
Payout Ratio9.97%25.98%41.98%57.99%73.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7.3318.9130.2541.3652.2562.9166.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)17.6217.8017.98
Year 2 PV (M)26.2926.8327.37
Year 3 PV (M)33.5134.5535.60
Year 4 PV (M)39.4641.1042.78
Year 5 PV (M)44.3046.6149.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,472.461,549.131,628.97
Equity Value (M)1,633.641,716.021,801.72
Shares Outstanding (M)13.4313.4313.43
Fair Value$121.67$127.80$134.19
Upside / Downside-12.78%-8.38%-3.81%

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