Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Empresa Metropolitana de Águas e Energia S.A. (EMAE4.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Diversified UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$160.97 - $341.89$228.64
Multi-Stage$114.65 - $125.38$119.92
Blended Fair Value$174.28
Current Price$34.90
Upside399.36%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.72%25.49%1.492.880.807.661.640.750.930.400.100.00
YoY Growth---48.27%260.36%-89.55%367.06%118.37%-19.13%131.47%308.27%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--3.98%4.17%2.10%20.72%3.10%3.52%5.11%5.23%1.58%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)316.52
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)316.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)63.3039.5723.74
Cash Retained (M)316.51316.51316.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-63.30-39.57-23.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)253.21276.95292.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)36.9536.9536.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share6.857.507.92
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share6.857.507.92
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.857.507.92
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$160.97$228.64$341.89
Upside / Downside361.25%555.12%879.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)316.52337.09359.01382.34407.19433.66446.67
Payout Ratio0.00%18.00%36.00%54.00%72.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.0160.68129.25206.47293.18390.30413.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)54.6555.1755.69
Year 2 PV (M)104.84106.83108.85
Year 3 PV (M)150.83155.16159.57
Year 4 PV (M)192.89200.31207.94
Year 5 PV (M)231.26242.43254.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,501.583,670.713,846.31
Equity Value (M)4,236.054,430.614,632.38
Shares Outstanding (M)36.9536.9536.95
Fair Value$114.65$119.92$125.38
Upside / Downside228.52%243.60%259.25%

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