Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya Purnamasari Tbk (ELPI.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$326.21 - $503.17$408.44
Multi-Stage$729.35 - $802.99$765.44
Blended Fair Value$586.94
Current Price$350.00
Upside67.70%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%6.304.160.00103.010.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--51.43%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.61%1.55%0.00%38.15%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)262,373.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)106,312.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)156,061.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)52,474.6032,796.6319,677.98
Cash Retained (M)156,061.00156,061.00156,061.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-52,474.60-32,796.63-19,677.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)103,586.40123,264.38136,383.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,412.007,412.007,412.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share13.9816.6318.40
LTM Dividend per Share14.3414.3414.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share13.9816.6318.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend28.3230.9732.74
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$326.21$408.44$503.17
Upside / Downside-6.80%16.70%43.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)262,373.00259,749.27257,151.78254,580.26252,034.46249,514.11256,999.54
Payout Ratio40.52%50.42%60.31%70.21%80.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)106,312.00130,953.97155,092.47178,735.11201,889.39224,562.70237,724.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)121,710.89122,952.84124,194.79
Year 2 PV (M)133,971.45136,719.51139,495.47
Year 3 PV (M)143,496.78147,934.52152,462.82
Year 4 PV (M)150,645.63156,889.19163,324.84
Year 5 PV (M)155,736.87163,846.45172,290.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,700,374.154,945,133.545,199,984.52
Equity Value (M)5,405,935.785,673,476.045,951,752.83
Shares Outstanding (M)7,412.007,412.007,412.00
Fair Value$729.35$765.44$802.99
Upside / Downside108.39%118.70%129.43%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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