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Definitive Analysis

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Deutz AG (DEZ.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.03 - $3.38$2.62
Multi-Stage$4.02 - $4.41$4.21
Blended Fair Value$3.42
Current Price$7.63
Upside-55.18%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.41%9.67%0.160.140.130.000.000.130.130.060.060.06
YoY Growth--13.23%3.85%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%112.94%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.31%2.32%2.22%0.00%0.00%3.93%1.71%0.83%0.96%1.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)23.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)23.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)0.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4.762.981.79
Cash Retained (M)0.200.200.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-4.76-2.98-1.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)-4.56-2.78-1.59
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)137.21137.21137.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.02-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.02-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.150.16
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-0.29%0.71%1.71%
Fair Value$2.03$2.62$3.38
Upside / Downside-73.43%-65.61%-55.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)23.8023.9724.1424.3124.4924.6625.40
Payout Ratio99.16%97.33%95.50%93.66%91.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)23.6023.3323.0522.7722.4922.2023.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-0.29%0.71%1.71%
Year 1 PV (M)21.6821.9022.11
Year 2 PV (M)19.9120.3120.72
Year 3 PV (M)18.2818.8319.40
Year 4 PV (M)16.7717.4518.16
Year 5 PV (M)15.3816.1716.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)460.11483.65508.14
Equity Value (M)552.13578.31605.52
Shares Outstanding (M)137.21137.21137.21
Fair Value$4.02$4.21$4.41
Upside / Downside-47.26%-44.76%-42.16%

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