Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Central Telegraph Public Joint Stock Company (CNTL.ME)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Telecommunications ServicesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.24 - $4.22$3.75
Multi-Stage$5.78 - $6.41$6.09
Blended Fair Value$4.92
Current Price$10.64
Upside-53.74%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-52.12%-1.76%0.250.052.080.1315.6410.100.040.010.010.19
YoY Growth--376.70%-97.43%1,509.68%-99.18%54.80%24,161.24%197.21%76.41%-95.84%-37.07%
Dividend Yield--2.39%0.32%13.50%1.19%91.86%53.44%0.29%0.08%0.04%0.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)152.76
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)152.64
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)30.5519.0911.46
Cash Retained (M)152.64152.64152.64
(-) Cash Required (M)-30.55-19.09-11.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)122.08133.54141.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)155.92155.92155.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.780.860.91
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.780.860.91
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.780.860.91
WACC / Discount Rate9.95%9.95%9.95%
Growth Rate-11.49%-10.49%-9.49%
Fair Value$3.24$3.75$4.22
Upside / Downside-69.59%-64.72%-60.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)152.76136.74122.40109.5698.0887.7990.42
Payout Ratio0.08%18.06%36.05%54.03%72.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.1224.7044.1259.2070.6379.0183.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.95%9.95%9.95%
Growth Rate-11.49%-10.49%-9.49%
Year 1 PV (M)22.2122.4622.72
Year 2 PV (M)35.6836.5037.32
Year 3 PV (M)43.0644.5346.04
Year 4 PV (M)46.2048.3250.52
Year 5 PV (M)46.4849.1651.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)707.51748.39791.14
Equity Value (M)901.14949.37999.70
Shares Outstanding (M)155.92155.92155.92
Fair Value$5.78$6.09$6.41
Upside / Downside-45.68%-42.77%-39.74%

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