Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. (CJA.F)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Grocery StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$275.33 - $536.50$502.78
Multi-Stage$82.44 - $90.30$86.30
Blended Fair Value$294.54
Current Price$39.72
Upside641.54%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS18.56%19.25%0.530.480.400.350.280.230.190.170.150.11
YoY Growth--11.55%19.94%14.42%23.03%24.39%18.97%11.64%11.77%39.58%19.79%
Dividend Yield--1.33%1.26%1.04%0.97%0.71%0.65%0.62%0.74%0.64%0.48%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,572.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)517.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,054.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)514.42321.51192.91
Cash Retained (M)2,054.402,054.402,054.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-514.42-321.51-192.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,539.981,732.891,861.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)953.45953.45953.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.621.821.95
LTM Dividend per Share0.540.540.54
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.621.821.95
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.162.362.50
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$275.33$502.78$536.50
Upside / Downside593.17%1,165.81%1,250.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,572.102,739.292,917.343,106.973,308.923,524.003,629.72
Payout Ratio20.13%34.10%48.08%62.05%76.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)517.70934.151,402.561,927.902,515.623,171.603,357.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)870.32878.57886.81
Year 2 PV (M)1,217.421,240.601,264.01
Year 3 PV (M)1,559.061,603.821,649.42
Year 4 PV (M)1,895.321,968.212,043.18
Year 5 PV (M)2,226.262,333.792,445.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)70,837.8974,259.3977,811.84
Equity Value (M)78,606.2782,284.3886,100.70
Shares Outstanding (M)953.45953.45953.45
Fair Value$82.44$86.30$90.30
Upside / Downside107.56%117.28%127.35%

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