Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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CEMEX, S.A.B. de C.V. (CEMEXCPO.MX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.82 - $1.25$1.02
Multi-Stage$1.22 - $1.34$1.28
Blended Fair Value$1.15
Current Price$0.69
Upside66.22%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-9.71%0.00%0.010.010.000.000.000.010.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---25.00%135.29%112.50%0.00%-84.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.07%0.88%0.62%0.30%0.23%4.81%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,364.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)268.05
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,096.32
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)272.87170.55102.33
Cash Retained (M)1,096.321,096.321,096.32
(-) Cash Required (M)-272.87-170.55-102.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)823.45925.78994.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)14,956.4114,956.4114,956.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.060.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.060.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.070.080.08
WACC / Discount Rate8.64%8.64%8.64%
Growth Rate-0.21%0.79%1.79%
Fair Value$0.82$1.02$1.25
Upside / Downside18.77%47.92%80.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,364.371,375.091,385.901,396.791,407.771,418.841,461.40
Payout Ratio19.65%33.72%47.79%61.86%75.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)268.05463.64662.29864.041,068.911,276.951,351.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.64%8.64%8.64%
Growth Rate-0.21%0.79%1.79%
Year 1 PV (M)422.53426.77431.00
Year 2 PV (M)550.06561.14572.33
Year 3 PV (M)654.00673.86694.11
Year 4 PV (M)737.34767.34798.25
Year 5 PV (M)802.75843.79886.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,068.6315,838.9716,640.49
Equity Value (M)18,235.3219,111.8720,022.68
Shares Outstanding (M)14,956.4114,956.4114,956.41
Fair Value$1.22$1.28$1.34
Upside / Downside76.06%84.53%93.32%

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