Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Consórcio Alfa de Administração S.A. (BRGE5.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - ConglomeratesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.53 - $9.27$7.17
Multi-Stage$6.92 - $7.59$7.25
Blended Fair Value$7.21
Current Price$10.82
Upside-33.34%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS3.70%1.30%0.070.060.060.030.060.050.050.050.000.04
YoY Growth--3.14%2.56%77.83%-39.42%5.22%0.20%7.88%0.00%-100.00%-23.36%
Dividend Yield--0.60%0.55%0.63%0.26%0.26%1.51%2.71%2.01%0.00%1.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)33.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)28.88
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.744.212.53
Cash Retained (M)28.8828.8828.88
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.74-4.21-2.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)22.1424.6726.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)73.6573.6573.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.300.330.36
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.300.330.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.370.400.42
WACC / Discount Rate8.43%8.43%8.43%
Growth Rate1.70%2.70%3.70%
Fair Value$5.53$7.17$9.27
Upside / Downside-48.90%-33.71%-14.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)33.6834.5935.5236.4837.4638.4739.63
Payout Ratio14.26%29.41%44.55%59.70%74.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4.8010.1715.8321.7828.0434.6236.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.43%8.43%8.43%
Growth Rate1.70%2.70%3.70%
Year 1 PV (M)9.299.389.47
Year 2 PV (M)13.2013.4613.73
Year 3 PV (M)16.5917.0917.59
Year 4 PV (M)19.5120.2921.09
Year 5 PV (M)22.0023.1124.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)429.27450.79473.17
Equity Value (M)509.86534.11559.30
Shares Outstanding (M)73.6573.6573.65
Fair Value$6.92$7.25$7.59
Upside / Downside-36.02%-32.97%-29.81%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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