Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Brava Energia S.A. (BRAV3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.47 - $27.04$22.60
Multi-Stage$31.07 - $34.23$32.62
Blended Fair Value$27.61
Current Price$17.98
Upside53.56%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%0.240.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)970.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)970.77
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)194.16121.3572.81
Cash Retained (M)970.77970.77970.77
(-) Cash Required (M)-194.16-121.35-72.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)776.62849.42897.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)400.55400.55400.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.942.122.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.942.122.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.942.122.24
WACC / Discount Rate8.29%8.29%8.29%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$18.47$22.60$27.04
Upside / Downside2.71%25.70%50.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)970.78961.07951.46941.95932.53923.20950.90
Payout Ratio0.00%18.00%36.00%54.00%72.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.01173.00342.53508.65671.42830.88879.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.29%8.29%8.29%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)158.14159.76161.37
Year 2 PV (M)286.23292.10298.03
Year 3 PV (M)388.54400.56412.82
Year 4 PV (M)468.83488.26508.29
Year 5 PV (M)530.35557.97586.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,614.4011,167.1211,742.63
Equity Value (M)12,446.5013,065.7613,709.86
Shares Outstanding (M)400.55400.55400.55
Fair Value$31.07$32.62$34.23
Upside / Downside72.82%81.42%90.36%

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