Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Chemring Group PLC (BC88.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.26 - $7.21$4.70
Multi-Stage$2.94 - $3.21$3.07
Blended Fair Value$3.89
Current Price$0.97
Upside300.55%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.82%5.14%0.070.060.050.040.040.030.030.020.000.03
YoY Growth--14.45%20.14%21.01%14.42%9.47%9.20%35.94%0.00%-100.00%-34.17%
Dividend Yield--7.32%6.40%4.74%3.92%3.42%3.10%2.84%2.09%0.00%2.81%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)46.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)40.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)6.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.325.833.50
Cash Retained (M)6.106.106.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.32-5.83-3.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)-3.220.282.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)278.84278.84278.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.130.150.15
WACC / Discount Rate8.70%8.70%8.70%
Growth Rate4.42%5.42%6.42%
Fair Value$3.26$4.70$7.21
Upside / Downside236.09%384.19%643.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)46.6049.1251.7854.5957.5560.6662.48
Payout Ratio86.91%87.53%88.15%88.76%89.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)40.5043.0045.6548.4651.4454.6057.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.70%8.70%8.70%
Growth Rate4.42%5.42%6.42%
Year 1 PV (M)39.1839.5639.93
Year 2 PV (M)37.9038.6339.37
Year 3 PV (M)36.6737.7338.81
Year 4 PV (M)35.4736.8438.26
Year 5 PV (M)34.3035.9837.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)637.33668.44700.75
Equity Value (M)820.85857.18894.84
Shares Outstanding (M)278.84278.84278.84
Fair Value$2.94$3.07$3.21
Upside / Downside203.48%216.92%230.84%

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