Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Brisbane Broncos Limited (BBL.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: EntertainmentSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.69 - $27.68$25.94
Multi-Stage$3.80 - $4.16$3.98
Blended Fair Value$14.96
Current Price$0.96
Upside1,458.43%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.45%11.61%0.020.020.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.01
YoY Growth--0.00%50.00%100.00%-50.00%0.00%33.33%0.00%0.00%50.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.58%1.67%0.91%0.63%2.30%2.44%1.53%1.36%2.03%1.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13.64
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)10.21
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.731.711.02
Cash Retained (M)10.2110.2110.21
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.73-1.71-1.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)7.488.519.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)98.0298.0298.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.120.13
WACC / Discount Rate6.71%6.71%6.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$9.69$25.94$27.68
Upside / Downside909.53%2,602.28%2,783.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13.6414.5315.4716.4817.5518.6919.25
Payout Ratio25.15%38.12%51.09%64.06%77.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3.435.547.9110.5613.5216.8217.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.71%6.71%6.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)5.145.195.24
Year 2 PV (M)6.816.947.07
Year 3 PV (M)8.458.698.93
Year 4 PV (M)10.0410.4310.82
Year 5 PV (M)11.6012.1612.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)330.72346.70363.28
Equity Value (M)372.76390.10408.09
Shares Outstanding (M)98.0298.0298.02
Fair Value$3.80$3.98$4.16
Upside / Downside296.14%314.57%333.69%

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