Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

AtkinsRéalis Group Inc. (ATRL.TO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$30.79 - $39.08$35.26
Multi-Stage$62.08 - $69.73$65.82
Blended Fair Value$50.54
Current Price$100.44
Upside-49.68%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-19.76%-20.90%0.080.080.080.080.080.241.171.030.900.87
YoY Growth---0.19%0.00%0.00%0.00%-66.67%-79.09%13.25%13.99%3.47%3.20%
Dividend Yield--0.12%0.15%0.24%0.27%0.30%1.17%3.38%1.84%1.73%1.84%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,585.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13.77
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,571.97
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)517.15323.22193.93
Cash Retained (M)2,571.972,571.972,571.97
(-) Cash Required (M)-517.15-323.22-193.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,054.822,248.752,378.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)172.82172.82172.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share11.8913.0113.76
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share11.8913.0113.76
(=) Adjusted Dividend11.9713.0913.84
WACC / Discount Rate8.66%8.66%8.66%
Growth Rate-21.76%-20.76%-19.76%
Fair Value$30.79$35.26$39.08
Upside / Downside-69.35%-64.89%-61.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,585.752,049.021,623.701,286.671,019.59807.96832.19
Payout Ratio0.53%18.43%36.32%54.21%72.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13.77377.55589.72697.54735.19727.16769.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.66%8.66%8.66%
Growth Rate-21.76%-20.76%-19.76%
Year 1 PV (M)343.08347.46351.85
Year 2 PV (M)486.93499.46512.14
Year 3 PV (M)523.36543.69564.53
Year 4 PV (M)501.24527.36554.49
Year 5 PV (M)450.49480.02511.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,424.118,976.389,557.24
Equity Value (M)10,729.2111,374.3712,051.33
Shares Outstanding (M)172.82172.82172.82
Fair Value$62.08$65.82$69.73
Upside / Downside-38.19%-34.47%-30.57%

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