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ARB Corporation Limited (ARB.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$197.26 - $482.30$451.98
Multi-Stage$70.13 - $76.77$73.39
Blended Fair Value$262.69
Current Price$32.70
Upside703.33%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS9.39%0.73%0.290.540.550.610.000.180.290.310.320.29
YoY Growth---47.35%-1.25%-9.98%0.00%-100.00%-36.78%-6.44%-2.72%8.22%10.30%
Dividend Yield--0.87%1.46%1.92%2.16%0.00%1.01%1.56%1.35%2.01%1.75%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)200.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)68.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)131.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)40.0425.0315.02
Cash Retained (M)131.95131.95131.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-40.04-25.03-15.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)91.90106.92116.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)82.5682.5682.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.111.301.42
LTM Dividend per Share0.830.830.83
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.111.301.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.942.122.24
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$197.26$451.98$482.30
Upside / Downside503.25%1,282.22%1,374.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)200.21213.22227.08241.84257.56274.31282.53
Payout Ratio34.10%45.28%56.46%67.64%78.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)68.2696.54128.21163.58203.01246.87261.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)89.7790.6291.47
Year 2 PV (M)110.84112.95115.09
Year 3 PV (M)131.50135.28139.12
Year 4 PV (M)151.75157.58163.58
Year 5 PV (M)171.58179.87188.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,134.555,382.555,640.05
Equity Value (M)5,789.996,058.856,337.78
Shares Outstanding (M)82.5682.5682.56
Fair Value$70.13$73.39$76.77
Upside / Downside114.48%124.44%134.77%

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