Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Alstom S.A. (AOMD.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.90 - $13.99$6.48
Multi-Stage$2.57 - $2.80$2.68
Blended Fair Value$4.58
Current Price$22.13
Upside-79.30%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-54.52%9.15%0.050.140.100.100.012.780.190.140.020.03
YoY Growth---60.66%41.86%-4.44%650.00%-99.51%1,369.05%40.00%445.45%-8.33%20.00%
Dividend Yield--0.27%1.03%0.41%0.50%0.03%9.01%0.56%0.40%0.11%0.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)61.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)36.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)25.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.207.634.58
Cash Retained (M)25.0025.0025.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.20-7.63-4.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)12.8017.3820.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)444.00444.00444.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.120.13
WACC / Discount Rate8.48%8.48%8.48%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$3.90$6.48$13.99
Upside / Downside-82.40%-70.73%-36.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)61.0064.9769.1973.6878.4783.5886.08
Payout Ratio59.02%65.21%71.41%77.61%83.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)36.0042.3749.4157.1865.7675.2279.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.48%8.48%8.48%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)38.6939.0639.42
Year 2 PV (M)41.2041.9942.78
Year 3 PV (M)43.5544.8046.07
Year 4 PV (M)45.7447.4949.30
Year 5 PV (M)47.7750.0852.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)923.41968.011,014.31
Equity Value (M)1,140.351,191.421,244.37
Shares Outstanding (M)444.00444.00444.00
Fair Value$2.57$2.68$2.80
Upside / Downside-88.39%-87.87%-87.34%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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