Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Alrov Properties and Lodgings Ltd. (ALRPR.TA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$654.25 - $1,080.18$843.18
Multi-Stage$1,073.13 - $1,180.94$1,125.99
Blended Fair Value$984.58
Current Price$262.00
Upside275.79%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.263.160.000.002.432.912.450.290.56
YoY Growth---100.00%-91.72%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-16.46%18.54%757.94%-48.89%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.17%2.10%0.00%0.00%2.50%2.32%2.01%0.33%0.68%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,178.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12.36
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,165.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)235.67147.2988.38
Cash Retained (M)1,165.981,165.981,165.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-235.67-147.29-88.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)930.311,018.681,077.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)20.6020.6020.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share45.1649.4552.32
LTM Dividend per Share0.600.600.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share45.1649.4552.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend45.7650.0652.92
WACC / Discount Rate7.09%7.09%7.09%
Growth Rate0.09%1.09%2.09%
Fair Value$654.25$843.18$1,080.18
Upside / Downside149.72%221.82%312.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,178.341,191.131,204.071,217.141,230.351,243.711,281.03
Payout Ratio1.05%18.84%36.63%54.42%72.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12.36224.40441.04662.36888.441,119.341,184.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.09%7.09%7.09%
Growth Rate0.09%1.09%2.09%
Year 1 PV (M)207.48209.55211.62
Year 2 PV (M)377.03384.60392.25
Year 3 PV (M)523.52539.37555.54
Year 4 PV (M)649.25675.59702.72
Year 5 PV (M)756.30794.85834.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,590.9120,589.3721,628.13
Equity Value (M)22,104.5023,193.3324,325.21
Shares Outstanding (M)20.6020.6020.60
Fair Value$1,073.13$1,125.99$1,180.94
Upside / Downside309.59%329.77%350.74%

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