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Definitive Analysis

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Alpha Group International plc (ALPH.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$86.01 - $199.41$125.94
Multi-Stage$59.89 - $65.49$62.64
Blended Fair Value$94.29
Current Price$31.85
Upside196.04%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS22.92%35.81%0.160.150.110.100.000.060.040.010.010.01
YoY Growth--11.24%32.39%6.77%0.00%-100.00%42.91%259.43%-3.64%106.65%-25.61%
Dividend Yield--0.70%0.84%0.60%0.48%0.00%0.47%0.72%0.23%0.47%0.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)179.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8.69
(=) Cash Retained (M)170.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)35.9022.4413.46
Cash Retained (M)170.80170.80170.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-35.90-22.44-13.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)134.90148.36157.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)43.3143.3143.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.113.433.63
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.113.433.63
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.323.633.83
WACC / Discount Rate9.57%9.57%9.57%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$86.01$125.94$199.41
Upside / Downside170.06%295.40%526.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)179.49191.15203.58216.81230.90245.91253.29
Payout Ratio4.84%21.87%38.90%55.94%72.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8.6941.8179.20121.27168.48221.32234.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.57%9.57%9.57%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)37.8038.1638.52
Year 2 PV (M)64.7465.9767.22
Year 3 PV (M)89.6392.2094.82
Year 4 PV (M)112.58116.91121.36
Year 5 PV (M)133.70140.16146.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,155.422,259.522,367.61
Equity Value (M)2,593.862,712.922,836.40
Shares Outstanding (M)43.3143.3143.31
Fair Value$59.89$62.64$65.49
Upside / Downside88.05%96.68%105.63%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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