Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Baikowski S.A. (ALBKK.PA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.70 - $27.46$22.22
Multi-Stage$39.90 - $43.98$41.90
Blended Fair Value$32.06
Current Price$20.80
Upside54.13%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.600.850.000.000.000.992.180.960.00
YoY Growth---100.00%-29.72%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-54.54%128.38%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%3.43%5.18%0.00%0.00%0.00%7.19%15.59%6.83%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6.91
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)5.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.380.860.52
Cash Retained (M)5.815.815.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.38-0.86-0.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)4.434.945.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3.663.663.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.211.351.44
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.211.351.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.511.651.74
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$17.70$22.22$27.46
Upside / Downside-14.90%6.82%32.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6.916.846.786.716.646.576.77
Payout Ratio15.97%30.78%45.58%60.39%75.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.102.113.094.054.995.926.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)1.961.982.00
Year 2 PV (M)2.682.732.79
Year 3 PV (M)3.273.373.47
Year 4 PV (M)3.753.904.06
Year 5 PV (M)4.134.354.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)130.44137.23144.30
Equity Value (M)146.22153.56161.19
Shares Outstanding (M)3.663.663.66
Fair Value$39.90$41.90$43.98
Upside / Downside91.81%101.44%111.46%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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