Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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AKVA group ASA (AKVA.OL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$68.64 - $126.27$92.41
Multi-Stage$100.87 - $110.80$105.74
Blended Fair Value$99.07
Current Price$82.00
Upside20.82%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.001.000.910.961.601.220.890.530.71
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%10.37%-5.72%-39.88%31.13%37.38%66.56%-24.71%-0.38%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%1.70%1.11%1.05%3.41%1.81%1.35%0.80%1.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)171.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)36.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)135.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)34.2721.4212.85
Cash Retained (M)135.05135.05135.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-34.27-21.42-12.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)100.78113.63122.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)36.3236.3236.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.773.133.36
LTM Dividend per Share1.001.001.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.773.133.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.774.134.36
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate1.31%2.31%3.31%
Fair Value$68.64$92.41$126.27
Upside / Downside-16.29%12.69%53.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)171.36175.32179.38183.53187.77192.11197.87
Payout Ratio21.19%34.95%48.71%62.48%76.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)36.3161.2887.38114.66143.15172.90183.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate1.31%2.31%3.31%
Year 1 PV (M)56.7757.3357.89
Year 2 PV (M)75.0076.4977.99
Year 3 PV (M)91.1893.9096.68
Year 4 PV (M)105.46109.69114.04
Year 5 PV (M)118.01123.95130.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,217.353,379.303,547.71
Equity Value (M)3,663.773,840.674,024.44
Shares Outstanding (M)36.3236.3236.32
Fair Value$100.87$105.74$110.80
Upside / Downside23.01%28.95%35.12%

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