Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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ASPEN INSURANCE HOLDINGS LTD (AHL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - Property & CasualtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$64.07 - $103.24$81.73
Multi-Stage$102.15 - $112.35$107.15
Blended Fair Value$94.44
Current Price$36.71
Upside157.26%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%14.51%2.570.530.530.000.000.000.560.740.690.67
YoY Growth--383.87%0.75%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-23.67%6.64%3.54%1.19%
Dividend Yield--7.90%1.63%1.62%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.74%2.28%2.13%2.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)453.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)31.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)422.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)90.7856.7434.04
Cash Retained (M)422.90422.90422.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-90.78-56.74-34.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)332.12366.16388.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)75.9675.9675.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.374.825.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.410.410.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.374.825.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.785.235.53
WACC / Discount Rate7.46%7.46%7.46%
Growth Rate0.00%1.00%2.00%
Fair Value$64.07$81.73$103.24
Upside / Downside74.53%122.65%181.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)453.90458.45463.05467.70472.39477.13491.44
Payout Ratio6.83%23.46%40.10%56.73%73.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)31.00107.57185.67265.33346.57429.41454.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.46%7.46%7.46%
Growth Rate0.00%1.00%2.00%
Year 1 PV (M)99.11100.10101.09
Year 2 PV (M)157.61160.78163.98
Year 3 PV (M)207.51213.80220.21
Year 4 PV (M)249.72259.86270.31
Year 5 PV (M)285.07299.61314.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,760.477,105.317,464.08
Equity Value (M)7,759.508,139.468,534.41
Shares Outstanding (M)75.9675.9675.96
Fair Value$102.15$107.15$112.35
Upside / Downside178.25%191.88%206.04%

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