Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Advenica AB (publ) (ADVE.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - InfrastructureSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.70 - $5.32$4.49
Multi-Stage$5.84 - $6.42$6.12
Blended Fair Value$5.31
Current Price$19.88
Upside-73.31%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)23.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3.96
(=) Cash Retained (M)19.47
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4.692.931.76
Cash Retained (M)19.4719.4719.47
(-) Cash Required (M)-4.69-2.93-1.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)14.7816.5417.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)44.2044.2044.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.330.370.40
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.330.370.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.420.460.49
WACC / Discount Rate9.22%9.22%9.22%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3.70$4.49$5.32
Upside / Downside-81.37%-77.40%-73.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)23.4323.1922.9622.7322.5022.2822.95
Payout Ratio16.90%31.52%46.14%60.76%75.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3.967.3110.5913.8116.9620.0521.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.22%9.22%9.22%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)6.636.696.76
Year 2 PV (M)8.708.889.06
Year 3 PV (M)10.2810.6010.93
Year 4 PV (M)11.4511.9212.41
Year 5 PV (M)12.2612.9013.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)208.69219.55230.87
Equity Value (M)258.00270.55283.59
Shares Outstanding (M)44.2044.2044.20
Fair Value$5.84$6.12$6.42
Upside / Downside-70.64%-69.21%-67.73%

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