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Definitive Analysis

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AB Dynamics plc (ABDP.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.54 - $37.25$24.91
Multi-Stage$12.76 - $13.94$13.34
Blended Fair Value$19.12
Current Price$14.25
Upside34.20%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS24.86%15.84%0.080.070.050.050.060.030.030.030.020.02
YoY Growth--23.22%22.87%10.96%-16.59%116.61%-16.20%11.84%15.79%16.35%13.49%
Dividend Yield--0.57%0.32%0.31%0.39%0.32%0.15%0.12%0.23%0.43%0.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)21.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3.44
(=) Cash Retained (M)18.26
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4.342.711.63
Cash Retained (M)18.2618.2618.26
(-) Cash Required (M)-4.34-2.71-1.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)13.9215.5516.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)23.2723.2723.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.600.670.72
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.600.670.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.750.820.86
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$17.54$24.91$37.25
Upside / Downside23.06%74.80%161.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)21.7123.1224.6226.2227.9229.7430.63
Payout Ratio15.86%30.69%45.51%60.34%75.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3.447.0911.2115.8220.9926.7728.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)6.396.456.51
Year 2 PV (M)9.099.269.44
Year 3 PV (M)11.5611.8912.23
Year 4 PV (M)13.8114.3414.89
Year 5 PV (M)15.8616.6317.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)240.19251.79263.84
Equity Value (M)296.90310.36324.33
Shares Outstanding (M)23.2723.2723.27
Fair Value$12.76$13.34$13.94
Upside / Downside-10.45%-6.39%-2.18%

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