Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Pop Mart International Group Limited (9992.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: LeisureSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$162.00 - $497.39$258.53
Multi-Stage$105.88 - $115.76$110.73
Blended Fair Value$184.63
Current Price$243.19
Upside-24.08%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS36.95%0.00%0.290.090.170.150.270.060.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--216.33%-45.85%9.42%-42.47%346.77%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.34%0.51%0.96%0.42%0.39%0.10%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,305.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,445.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,859.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,661.121,038.20622.92
Cash Retained (M)6,859.766,859.766,859.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,661.12-1,038.20-622.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)5,198.645,821.566,236.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,333.371,333.371,333.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.904.374.68
LTM Dividend per Share1.081.081.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.904.374.68
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.985.455.76
WACC / Discount Rate8.75%8.75%8.75%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$162.00$258.53$497.39
Upside / Downside-33.39%6.31%104.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,305.618,845.479,420.4310,032.7610,684.8911,379.4111,720.79
Payout Ratio17.41%31.93%46.44%60.96%75.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,445.852,824.054,375.316,116.308,065.1310,241.4610,841.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.75%8.75%8.75%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,572.562,596.942,621.33
Year 2 PV (M)3,630.723,699.883,769.69
Year 3 PV (M)4,623.444,756.174,891.40
Year 4 PV (M)5,553.685,767.265,986.94
Year 5 PV (M)6,424.276,734.577,056.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)118,371.60124,088.99130,025.20
Equity Value (M)141,176.27147,643.80154,351.29
Shares Outstanding (M)1,333.371,333.371,333.37
Fair Value$105.88$110.73$115.76
Upside / Downside-56.46%-54.47%-52.40%

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