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Definitive Analysis

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Al Rashid Industrial Co. (9580.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$60.08 - $93.33$75.46
Multi-Stage$136.58 - $150.56$143.43
Blended Fair Value$109.44
Current Price$47.86
Upside128.67%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%1.000.751.000.001.240.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--33.33%-25.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.22%2.37%3.08%0.00%3.80%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)51.01
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)42.01
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.206.383.83
Cash Retained (M)42.0142.0142.01
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.20-6.38-3.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)31.8135.6438.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8.008.008.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.974.454.77
LTM Dividend per Share1.121.121.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.974.454.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.105.585.90
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$60.08$75.46$93.33
Upside / Downside25.54%57.66%95.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)51.0150.5050.0049.5049.0048.5149.97
Payout Ratio17.64%32.11%46.59%61.06%75.53%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9.0016.2223.2930.2237.0143.6646.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)15.1015.2515.41
Year 2 PV (M)20.1920.6121.02
Year 3 PV (M)24.3925.1525.92
Year 4 PV (M)27.8128.9730.16
Year 5 PV (M)30.5532.1433.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)975.021,025.801,078.66
Equity Value (M)1,093.081,147.911,204.97
Shares Outstanding (M)8.008.008.00
Fair Value$136.58$143.43$150.56
Upside / Downside185.36%199.68%214.58%

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