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Definitive Analysis

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Bena Steel Industries Co. (9563.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.42 - $28.57$23.12
Multi-Stage$43.83 - $48.17$45.96
Blended Fair Value$34.54
Current Price$40.00
Upside-13.65%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%0.780.051.072.400.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--1,376.87%-95.04%-55.42%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.02%0.16%2.72%6.11%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)11.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)1.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.261.410.85
Cash Retained (M)1.801.801.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.26-1.41-0.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)-0.460.390.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5.755.755.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.080.070.17
LTM Dividend per Share1.651.651.65
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.080.070.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.571.721.81
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$18.42$23.12$28.57
Upside / Downside-53.96%-42.21%-28.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)11.2811.1611.0510.9410.8310.7211.05
Payout Ratio84.07%85.26%86.44%87.63%88.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9.489.529.559.599.629.6510.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)8.868.959.04
Year 2 PV (M)8.288.458.62
Year 3 PV (M)7.737.978.22
Year 4 PV (M)7.227.527.83
Year 5 PV (M)6.747.097.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)213.18224.28235.84
Equity Value (M)252.01264.26277.00
Shares Outstanding (M)5.755.755.75
Fair Value$43.83$45.96$48.17
Upside / Downside9.57%14.90%20.44%

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