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Definitive Analysis

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Fesh Fash Snack Food Production Company (9515.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.87 - $10.67$8.63
Multi-Stage$15.72 - $17.33$16.51
Blended Fair Value$12.57
Current Price$10.54
Upside19.25%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS-16.04%0.00%0.180.150.100.300.380.430.430.000.000.00
YoY Growth--20.01%49.99%-66.67%-20.00%-13.08%1.56%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.19%0.86%0.69%0.82%5.79%6.66%6.56%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)6.16
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.641.020.61
Cash Retained (M)6.166.166.16
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.64-1.02-0.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)4.525.145.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11.2611.2611.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.400.460.49
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.400.460.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.580.640.67
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$6.87$8.63$10.67
Upside / Downside-34.84%-18.15%1.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8.208.128.047.967.887.808.03
Payout Ratio24.81%37.85%50.89%63.92%76.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.033.074.095.096.067.027.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)2.862.892.92
Year 2 PV (M)3.553.623.69
Year 3 PV (M)4.114.234.36
Year 4 PV (M)4.564.754.94
Year 5 PV (M)4.915.175.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)157.10165.28173.80
Equity Value (M)177.08185.93195.14
Shares Outstanding (M)11.2611.2611.26
Fair Value$15.72$16.51$17.33
Upside / Downside49.18%56.64%64.40%

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