Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Last One Mile Co.,Ltd. (9252.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty Business ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,755.54 - $2,573.61$2,149.50
Multi-Stage$2,985.42 - $3,287.47$3,133.48
Blended Fair Value$2,641.49
Current Price$3,955.00
Upside-33.21%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%10.680.000.0022.620.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.27%0.00%0.00%2.29%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)673.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)31.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)642.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)134.7884.2450.54
Cash Retained (M)642.52642.52642.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-134.78-84.24-50.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)507.74558.28591.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2.942.942.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share172.87190.07201.55
LTM Dividend per Share10.6810.6810.68
(+) Excess Retained per Share172.87190.07201.55
(=) Adjusted Dividend183.55200.76212.23
WACC / Discount Rate8.25%8.25%8.25%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1,755.54$2,149.50$2,573.61
Upside / Downside-55.61%-45.65%-34.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)673.90667.16660.49653.88647.35640.87660.10
Payout Ratio4.66%21.73%38.79%55.86%72.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)31.38144.94256.23365.28472.12576.78610.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.25%8.25%8.25%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)132.55133.90135.25
Year 2 PV (M)214.28218.68223.12
Year 3 PV (M)279.35287.99296.81
Year 4 PV (M)330.19343.87357.98
Year 5 PV (M)368.89388.10408.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,443.387,830.978,234.55
Equity Value (M)8,768.649,203.529,655.81
Shares Outstanding (M)2.942.942.94
Fair Value$2,985.42$3,133.48$3,287.47
Upside / Downside-24.52%-20.77%-16.88%

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