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Definitive Analysis

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ANA Holdings Inc. (9202.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Airlines, Airports & Air ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,728.78 - $6,444.54$4,896.72
Multi-Stage$5,778.12 - $6,344.87$6,056.08
Blended Fair Value$5,476.40
Current Price$2,861.00
Upside91.42%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-1.30%8.43%46.150.000.000.000.0049.2539.4041.2434.3227.42
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%25.00%-4.46%20.17%25.15%33.53%
Dividend Yield--1.63%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%2.01%1.09%1.01%0.88%0.94%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)148,334.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)47,042.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)101,292.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)29,666.8018,541.7511,125.05
Cash Retained (M)101,292.00101,292.00101,292.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-29,666.80-18,541.75-11,125.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)71,625.2082,750.2590,166.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)509.70509.70509.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share140.52162.35176.90
LTM Dividend per Share92.2992.2992.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share140.52162.35176.90
(=) Adjusted Dividend232.82254.64269.20
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate0.82%1.82%2.82%
Fair Value$3,728.78$4,896.72$6,444.54
Upside / Downside30.33%71.15%125.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)148,334.00151,027.21153,769.32156,561.21159,403.79162,297.99167,166.93
Payout Ratio31.71%43.37%55.03%66.69%78.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)47,042.0065,501.7984,616.39104,403.51124,881.26146,068.19154,629.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate0.82%1.82%2.82%
Year 1 PV (M)60,552.9261,153.5561,754.18
Year 2 PV (M)72,313.3473,755.0275,210.93
Year 3 PV (M)82,482.3484,961.2287,489.27
Year 4 PV (M)91,206.3594,879.2998,662.06
Year 5 PV (M)98,620.10103,609.21108,798.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,539,934.252,668,427.432,802,069.06
Equity Value (M)2,945,109.303,086,785.713,233,983.71
Shares Outstanding (M)509.70509.70509.70
Fair Value$5,778.12$6,056.08$6,344.87
Upside / Downside101.96%111.68%121.77%

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