Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Leopalace21 Corporation (8848.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$259.50 - $401.48$325.34
Multi-Stage$582.47 - $641.74$611.52
Blended Fair Value$468.43
Current Price$714.00
Upside-34.39%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%7.560.000.000.000.000.007.0613.2512.270.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-46.70%7.95%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.22%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%2.50%2.18%1.76%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)11,943.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,238.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)8,705.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,388.601,492.88895.73
Cash Retained (M)8,705.008,705.008,705.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,388.60-1,492.88-895.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)6,316.407,212.137,809.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)428.30428.30428.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share14.7516.8418.23
LTM Dividend per Share7.567.567.56
(+) Excess Retained per Share14.7516.8418.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend22.3124.4025.79
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$259.50$325.34$401.48
Upside / Downside-63.66%-54.43%-43.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)11,943.0011,823.5711,705.3311,588.2811,472.4011,357.6711,698.40
Payout Ratio27.11%39.69%52.27%64.84%77.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,238.004,692.746,118.067,514.408,882.2110,221.9110,821.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)4,364.924,409.464,454.00
Year 2 PV (M)5,293.135,401.715,511.38
Year 3 PV (M)6,047.046,234.056,424.88
Year 4 PV (M)6,648.436,923.977,208.00
Year 5 PV (M)7,116.717,487.307,873.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)220,001.83231,457.83243,386.18
Equity Value (M)249,472.06261,914.32274,857.59
Shares Outstanding (M)428.30428.30428.30
Fair Value$582.47$611.52$641.74
Upside / Downside-18.42%-14.35%-10.12%

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